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Forum:2011 Pacific hurricane season/Beatriz
02E.BEATRIZ Aoi:Near Central America :Small, Auree mentioned this on IRC. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] It just keeps getting better and better everyone! Here comes our next one! I'm counting on Beatriz soon, perhaps in a few days. Ryan1000 02:21, June 11, 2011 (UTC) :I would not be surprised to see a storm out of this. Yqt1001 03:03, June 11, 2011 (UTC) ::This is barely the beginning, everyone. The outflow of Adrian may hinder (Beatriz), but it likely will follow in his great footsteps and hang out at sea. Ryan1000 04:43, June 11, 2011 (UTC) :::Looking good. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 16:57, June 11, 2011 (UTC) ::And getting better. We could easily have this storm become Beatriz and the wave near Panama become Calvin before the 20th of June. We're already trying to catch up to 2010's early hot streak, but unlike 2010, we aren't in La Nina conditions now. We're slowly starting to get more favorable here. Ryan1000 19:41, June 11, 2011 (UTC) :::This wave looks better than Adrian right now (looks better, not is more tropical than Adrian). I think that this storm has a very good chance at becoming Beatriz. Yqt1001 23:02, June 11, 2011 (UTC) ::::No mention on TWO, idk why? YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] :::::It's taking its time to develop, apparently, but I would be surprised if it doesn't develop at all. Ryan1000 00:17, June 13, 2011 (UTC) ::::::It's failing and so are these forums. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 13:47, June 13, 2011 (UTC) :::::::Well the tropics are dead now that the 3 storms (Sarika, Adrian and One) are gone. I'm just waiting until another storm forms or until the NHC mentions this on their TWO. If neither of these storms form, it looks like the next active basin in the Western Hemisphere will be the Atlantic in 14 days when all conditions become favourable for an Alex like storm to smash into the US coast (or that's what the models think). Yqt1001 14:10, June 13, 2011 (UTC) ::::::I personally do not want to watch the north Atlantic storms at all, because the storms there aren't fun to watch. The storms we like to watch on Wikia are the ones that don't affect land and we can root on for them to get as strong as possible, guilt-free ooing and ahhing, and no threat to anyone. Adrian is an example; he got quite a bit of attention because he was so fun to watch over him having no threat on land. North Atlantic storms cause lots of destruction and deaths, and storms that do that aren't fun to watch. They are heartbreaking and sad to the people they affect. Ryan1000 14:57, June 13, 2011 (UTC) :::::Good point Ryan, it's nice too not have the guilt of hundreds of people when you track storms (especially when you live so far from hurricanes you don't know what they are like). But I guess for now the only thing to watch is the eruption of Nabro Volcano in Eritrea. Yqt1001 15:28, June 13, 2011 (UTC) ::::Yeah, I have no idea of how bad people may feel after a hurricane. I mean, many people from hurricane Katrina have lost everything after that storm, including their lives. When a massive major hurricane is heading towards U.S. soil, or towards anywhere for that matter, we don't cheer for it on hurricane Wiki, we wait until the storm has passed and explain details behind the storm in the retirements at a glance section or so. It's not fun to cheer on storms there in the ATL forum. To put it bluntly, the EPac should really be the most active forum on this Wiki and not the north Atlantic because we can root on most of the hurricanes that are in this basin with no harm to anyone's feelings. Rarely do hurricanes here ever make landfall, let alone become retired. Because Mexico gets hit with hurricanes all the time, they have gotten stricter with retirement, as they have showed us last year with Alex and Karl, but they have a very strange track record for EPac names IMO. they retired Pauline of 1997, which killed 230 people and they didn't retire Tara of 1961, which killed nearly 500 people. They retired Isamel of 1995 which killed 116 people and not Liza of 1976, which killed 600 to 950 people. They retired Kenna and not Norbert. Central America retired Alma and not Agatha. It goes to show retirements can be random in this basin, but because many hurricanes here never affect land, they are fun to watch out to sea. Ryan1000 16:48, June 13, 2011 (UTC) :::::::Well, the EPCc forum is the most active forum on here. I can recall such a long thread made about an AOI. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] ::::::94L... Maybe? The SHem probrably got a litle more activity as a whole, including the sections I archived, but I feel the Pacific forum may be the most active overall this year. The AOI hasn't exactly gotten it's act together any further since this section began, but I hope it does develop. Ryan1000 22:24, June 13, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::This AOI fails. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 17:15, June 14, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::Yeah, it's falling apart. Ever since Adrian and Sarika, the tropics have settled down. They will likely remain at this way until later this month or July, when we get some more EPac/WPac storms or have a storm or two to kick off the AHS. Ryan1000 23:34, June 14, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::::Still 10$. It needs to organize and then it will be just fine. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 00:22, June 15, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::It's looking better on sattelite imagery, but it's just not developing. The area of T'storms off of Nicaragua are not showing signs of developing either; they are too close to land, and under too much shear. This wave may still become Beatriz, but I won't put any bets on it as of yet. It's certainly not out of the question... Our eyes now turn to the new storm in the WPac. Ryan1000 17:05, June 15, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::::::I guess Beatriz might have to wait. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 17:27, June 15, 2011 (UTC) Aoi:moving over SA and Panama :Technically in the ATL, but slowly moving westward. Could become Calvin in like 5 days. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 17:00, June 11, 2011 (UTC) Wow, we're getting active! We have the wave south of CA which could become Beatriz, another wave which could become Calvin, and future Keila in the Arabian Sea. I'm fully on the lookout. Ryan1000 19:41, June 11, 2011 (UTC) :Does not want to enter the EPAC. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 13:49, June 13, 2011 (UTC) I guess we're slowing down a bit. Oh well, we will respring into activity at one point or another. Ryan1000 14:59, June 13, 2011 (UTC) :Merged with the above system. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 00:20, June 15, 2011 (UTC) ::Now at 10%. Yqt1001 17:08, June 15, 2011 (UTC) :::This forum is dead..but might not be for long, 30% chance of development now. 216.211.40.158 12:09, June 16, 2011 (UTC) :::Shoot 216! I was gonna say that! Anyway, I do think Two-E (or even Beatriz) is coming. Andrew444 13:02, June 16, 2011 (UTC) :::I would not count on this system to develop. Looks very broad and unorganized. If it :::organizes better, it will have a higher chance of becoming a tropical cyclone with this :::system. OWEN2011 17:21, June 16, 2011 (UTC) ::::Sorry Andrew, I tend to always be around when the NHC updates the TWOs..but wow 2 new(ish) members in a day! Must be a new record! And yeah, the low keeps getting broader, but I feel it's because it just merged with another wave. Yqt1001 17:26, June 16, 2011 (UTC) :::Well, welcome Andrew! BTW Yqt, Owen was here a litle earlier in the "2010 Retirees Pool" forum, but the tropics are slowing down a bit. The new WPac depression dissipated from an Anticyclone, and 02B is just about to make a landfall in Bangladesh, while Beatriz may have to wait. Anyhow, a little bit of activity won't hurt. Also, if you haven't noticed, we have Betting pools here too, Andrew and Owen. Ryan1000 17:46, June 16, 2011 (UTC) :::Ryan, I know about those. Andrew444 18:05, June 16, 2011 (UTC) ::Ah, never mind. It's kind of sad that many people only care about north Atlantic hurricanes and not anywhere else. I like the EPac the most because hurricanes here don't affect land and are fun to watch out to sea. We should not watch North Atlantic storms because as I mentioned above, north Atlantic hurricanes are very destructive and deadly. They are heartbreaking disasters and are sad to speak of. We don't root for hurricanes to kill people or do lots of damage. We root for hurricanes that head out to sea to get as strong as possible with no threat on land. That's all in the EPac's book, somewhat the WPac and SPac. Ryan1000 18:17, June 16, 2011 (UTC) 92E.INVEST Investe'd at 40%. Go 92E!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 17:51, June 16, 2011 (UTC) Ack, I was just going to post that! Yeah, I hope we get something out of this, nice to have some activity out there. I think we could see Tropical Storm Beatriz (at least) from this. HurricaneFiona 17:56, June 16, 2011 (UTC) It's a rather sad excuse for an invest as of now, but by god I hope it develops! ...And you beat me by a minute, Fiona! Ryan1000 17:57, June 16, 2011 (UTC) ::This section was a mess so I "fixed it", hope it's ok with you guys. Yqt1001 19:17, June 16, 2011 (UTC) :I'm not upset over anything not being "fixed", but 92E is just too broad and unorganized, and I won't put any bets on Beatriz in the near future. We may be slowing down a bit, but it won't happen for long. Ryan1000 23:08, June 16, 2011 (UTC) :::::::Once the convention become concentrated, we will be ok. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 23:52, June 16, 2011 (UTC) ::::::Hmmm, SHIPS (my favorite intensity model) is fairly bullish with this system, taking it up to Category 1 intensity by the next week. I fully expect this system to get its act together within the next 3 days, and because it is or will be entering into a favorable environment, I think this storm to intensify to at least strong tropical storm strength. On a side note... I think this is the most bullish I have ever forecast the EPAC basin :P ::::I don't think we will see anything past a minor TS out of this one, but because the EPac and the WPac are the only basins worldwide that are actually spitting out storms, it's worth paying attention to. Ryan1000 01:53, June 17, 2011 (UTC) :::::Looking better, it's TWO time. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 17:44, June 17, 2011 (UTC) ::::It's a little smaller and more concentrated now, but it better get on with it. It's close to the southern coast of Mexico, and it has a chance to make landfall, if it doesn't go out to sea. The area of thunderstorms off of Nicaragua in the Caribbean have also been staying there for some time, but they aren't within a closed circulation, like this invest is(or will be). Ryan1000 18:05, June 17, 2011 (UTC) :::Well it's at 50% now..looks like we have a decent chance of seeing Beatriz. Yqt1001 19:28, June 17, 2011 (UTC) :::::Models have shifted more towards the coast today, and SHIPS has returned to its hurricane forecast. The models are predicting a track similar to another early season hurricane, Andres 09. While it seems like the storm is going to form further east than Andres, intensity-wise they could be close. '''Darren23Edits|Mail 21:35, June 17, 2011 (UTC) :::Perhaps we could see Beatriz, not a bad start for a B name, but Beatriz is heading parallel to the coast of Mexico. Interaction with land may certainly hinder it, but still I am expecting Beatriz to come onto us in another few days or so. Probrably won't become like Adrian, but it certainly bears watching as it parallels the coast and then heads out to sea, there is still a threat for flooding and mudslides. Ryan1000 23:54, June 17, 2011 (UTC) :::92E is at 60% now. We may see our second storm from this. Andrew444 03:02, June 18, 2011 (UTC) ::I think it's pretty likely, 60% chance is a very high chance and the low is deepening and the circulation is very visible. The area it is in is very favourable also, so I feel the odds on this becoming 02E is high enough to warrant a bet now. Yqt1001 04:19, June 18, 2011 (UTC) :Still at 60%. but looking better. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 15:08, June 18, 2011 (UTC) ::I'm expecting Beatriz, but ahead of this thing there is a crapload of shear south of Baja. If it explodes, it has a chance to make landfall and there is still a threat from coastal flooding as it parallels the coast. Ryan1000 16:31, June 18, 2011 (UTC) ::This thing has not been getting any better organized. I expect this thing to not be an Adrian ::for sure. OWEN2011 19:56, June 18, 2011 (UTC) ::Yes, it has lair. Stop begin a downcaster, okay. Anyway, it is now at 70% and looks better. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone]23:40, June 18, 2011 (UTC) :::Looks like it will develop after all. It's slowly organizing, but even though I also think category 4 is out of the question, per what Adrian showed us a little earlier, and per what Julia of last year's AHS showed us, never say never. Ryan1000 01:49, June 19, 2011 (UTC) :::Even though before I said it may not develop, I have a feeling now we will get a tropical depression :::but that doesn't mean hope for a big storm, IF some of you are. I went on NOAA though and :::saw all these conditions that may not allow this thing to develop. OWEN2011 02:49, June 19, 2011 (UTC) ::::Um, no waters are warm and is is not too far from land. There is some northeasterly shear, which /should/ prevent an explosion, but I wont rule it out. This has a remote chance of becoming a deadly storms, but again I am not rull it out. I hope it does develop into a moderate TS, but does not do too much from Mexico and if anyone gets affected, I hope its the drug dealers. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 04:01, June 19, 2011 (UTC) :::NHC has it at 80% now with a very high chance that it will form Sunday evening. Yqt1001 05:59, June 19, 2011 (UTC) ::::I'm expecting Beatriz now, but I don't think we'll see anything more then a category 1 from it. Thing is, it's close enough to Mexico to worry me, I hope everyone there is alright. HurricaneFiona 07:26, June 19, 2011 (UTC) ::::Just noticed, it's been upped to 90%. They even say that "a tropical depression may be forming" and "advisories may be issued later this morning" HurricaneFiona 10:40, June 19, 2011 (UTC) :::I do not know how bad it may be for Mexico, I mean, I was never expecting Agatha of last year to be as deadly as it was, but Alma of 2008 hit Nicaragua as a TS, and it didn't do so much(it did become retired, despite the minor impacts... it's one of many EPac retirements that remains a mystery to me... ?_?) Mountanous coastlines or areas with mountains period don't mix very well with rainfall, but it all depends on the size, speed, and strength of the storm, and the area it hits. In the case of Beatriz, I hope it will remain as far offshore as possible, and stay at sea like Adrian did. Ryan1000 12:44, June 19, 2011 (UTC) :::A tropical depression i think has already formed. 173.168.145.18 13:07, June 19, 2011 (UTC) ::Um, Not quite. It is so close to becoming Beatriz though. This is what was quoted from the NHC's tropical weather outlook in the EPac: :: FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING''. ''IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS LOW BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...Well, I think it's time to say hello to our second storm of the season, and possibly first landfall. Ryan1000 13:25, June 19, 2011 (UTC) T.C.F.W. 02E/TD/B/CX MARK 13.13N/100.8W Say hello to Tropical Depression 2E? OWEN2011 13:43, June 19, 2011 (UTC) :I Think the NHC is waiting for DMIN to see how the storm is holding up, they did the same for Adrian, he was at "Near 100% Chance" for nearly 18 hours. Yqt1001 13:49, June 19, 2011 (UTC) ::Yeah, but they put the advisories will be initialed crap one. And it looks like a TD as well. 91E did not. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 14:34, June 19, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Depression Two-E ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 14:37, June 19, 2011 (UTC) :Yay! Second storm of the season! I will have to wait though, it could be a big flood event even if it doesn't become strong, keep your eyes out, Mexico. Ryan1000 14:40, June 19, 2011 (UTC) ::Recon schedule for tomorrow into the system. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 14:49, June 19, 2011 (UTC) :::You beat me to it again, YE! I'm expecting Beatriz soon, and I don;t think it'll be higher then category 1 intensity. Still, weak doesn't mean it won't be bad... HurricaneFiona 14:58, June 19, 2011 (UTC) ::::Finally! Only took 92E days to form! And I see there is a hurricane watch for the Mexico coast, looks like we might see Hurricane Beatriz. Yqt1001 15:00, June 19, 2011 (UTC) :::NOAA's forecast track for TD 2-E is here, and the forecast shows it becoming a minimal hurricane before nicking at the tip of the coast near Manzanillo, and then heading out to sea. Even if it does briefly make landfall, it won't be over land for a very long time. Even so, coastal flooding could still be a problem as it nears Mexico, and even though the forecast shows it becoming only a category one, given the favorable conditions ahead of it in a few days, I would not be surprised if it explodes before it(briefly) makes landfall. Stay tuned. This one bears watching for sure. Ryan1000 15:21, June 19, 2011 (UTC) ::::PARTY! PARTY! Should by interesting to track. I love the EPAC, you've been so awesome to me this month. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 15:25, June 19, 2011 (UTC) :::::I expect Two-E to become Beatriz by tonight. Andrew444 16:28, June 19, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Beatriz YAY! YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 17:35, June 19, 2011 (UTC) :Wow only ~3 hours between invest and TS. Yqt1001 17:49, June 19, 2011 (UTC) : :Beatriz seems to be in a slightly favorable environment. It seems though we might :see a hurricane on our hands soon. The NHC forecasts 75 mph. OWEN2011 18:11, June 19, 2011 (UTC) :(Now) I think Beatriz is going to become a hurricane by Tuesday. I would say 90 mph at the most. Andrew444 20:24, June 19, 2011 (UTC) ::Hurricane warning issued for portions of Mexico. Beatriz is still at 40mph. Yqt1001 21:22, June 19, 2011 (UTC) :Still at 40mph winds, but NHC says she will near hurricane strength in 24 hours. NHC also says that hurricane conditions are to be expected over the next day in the warning areas (destructive waves, flooding and winds), the rainbands are already affecting the coast. Yqt1001 23:52, June 19, 2011 (UTC) ::Wow, I knew we would be seeing Beatriz but now that it's over these warm waters and low shear it's just taking off. The people in southern Mexico need to get ready NOW. Just because it won't get past a category 1 or so doesn't mean it won't be bad. This could be our first big hit of the season. Ryan1000 00:13, June 20, 2011 (UTC) :45mph winds. Yqt1001 02:40, June 20, 2011 (UTC) ::60mph winds, and now forecast to be nearly a category 2 hurricane when she brushes the coast, I don't think that category 2 force winds will touch Mexico, but 75mph winds-80mph winds probably is a possibility. Yqt1001 13:36, June 20, 2011 (UTC) ::65 now per RBT. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 14:22, June 20, 2011 (UTC) :It's clearly getting better organized, but I think rather than making a brief landfall, it will just miss the western tip of Mexico near Manzanillo. It's not out of the question, but it all depends. I'm closely watching Beatriz. Ryan1000 16:04, June 20, 2011 (UTC) :::Seems like Hunters are about 30 mins-1 hour from intercepting the center of Beatriz. Can't wait to get some info. '''Darren23Edits|Mail 17:42, June 20, 2011 (UTC) ::Probrably won't be that bad, but it's certainly exciting as the EPac and WPac are the only basins actually spitting out storms. I'll still be on the lookout. Ryan1000 17:49, June 20, 2011 (UTC) :::I reckon she might be Hurricane Beatriz soon, she looks quite good - but we'll see. HurricaneFiona 18:54, June 20, 2011 (UTC) ::::RBT now has Beatriz at 70 mph. No doubt this storm should become a hurricane. Darren23Edits|Mail 19:12, June 20, 2011 (UTC) :::::Last recon pass had Beatriz at 991 hPa and max SFMR surface winds at 70 kts and max FL winds at 74 kts. Seems like a 'cane to me. Darren23Edits|Mail 20:05, June 20, 2011 (UTC) :::::The NHC predicts 80 mph winds. Andrew444 20:11, June 20, 2011 (UTC) ::::70mph winds as of the 2PM PDT update, hurricane warnings extended northwestward and tropical storm force winds already touching the coast. Yqt1001 20:42, June 20, 2011 (UTC) You've got to be kidding me NHC! It's a goddamn hurricane you stupid conservative fools!(JK) Oh well, I think it should be a hurricane when the Interm. adv. comes. Darren23Edits|Mail 20:58, June 20, 2011 (UTC) ::Agreed completely, but it does look like a 70 mph storm. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 21:36, June 20, 2011 (UTC) :: ::For me Beatriz would not cause a lot of damge except for gusty winds and heavy rain unless it strength more or make landfall. '''Allan Jeffs 22:04, June 20. 2011 (UTC) :::Well, tropical storms can cause that don't make landfall can still cause a lot of damage like what happened din Frank 2010 or Adrian 99 or even Juliette 01 and John 06 caused a lot of damage when the storm was offshore. Even Douglas 08 and Elida 08 caused some flooding while remaining offshore, but not as bad as the others. It is true, that other like Blanca 09 and Dora 05 and Hillary 05 did little impact to the coast, but again this is just a few of the storms. I can gone on and on. Stay tuned. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] ::: :::I really think Beatriz has now weakened unexpectedly. Anyone else think so? OWEN2011 23:54, June 20, 2011 (UTC) ::::Why? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/avn-l.jpg looks like a 70 mph storm IMO. It looks like ti wants to make landfall though. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 23:57, June 20, 2011 (UTC) :::::How has it weakened? It just had a burst of nice looking cold cloud tops in the CDO. I have a feeling that will prompt the NHC to upgrade it. '''Darren23Edits|Mail 00:52, June 21, 2011 (UTC) ::::: ::::: :::::I agree. though i think i would trim it's intensity a little possibly :::::because of land interaction. 65.32.55.172 01:10, June 21, 2011 (UTC) ::::(Hurricane) Beatriz, is shrinking, but that may not mean weakening. We may never know how bad it may be, but YE, a ton of landfalls doesn't mean a ton of impact. 1996 had 5 landfalls(in a season with just 9 storms), but none of those 5 landfalls were particularly bad. 1971 is another example. In that year, we had 9 total landfalls from either the EPac or the Atlantic, which was the highest number of landfalls in Mexico from any one season on record. The second highest was 8 in 2003, but none of the 8 landfalls in that year or the 9 from 1971 were particularly bad, although Hurricanes Ignacio and Marty in 2003 did do 1 billion in damage combined to Baja. We'll have to wait and see what Beatriz will do. It's small size will localize it's destruction, and it won't be affecting a large portion of Mexico anyways. Regardless of what happens, it promises to be an interesting storm for the next 48 hours. Ryan1000 01:19, June 21, 2011 (UTC) ::::I can hardly believe Beatriz is not a hurricane. It should be one by the next advisory. Andrew444 01:56, June 21, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::Adv time. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 02:34, June 21, 2011 (UTC) Hurricane Beatriz Now at 75 mph/985 mb! In your face, Owens. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 02:45, June 21, 2011 (UTC) :Damnit YE! You beat me by 20 seconds! Anyways hurricane force winds are on the coast of Mexico already and NHC now expects it to reach 85mph now (down from 90mph). Yqt1001 02:48, June 21, 2011 (UTC) ::I don't know if I'm more surprised that the NHC is taking it to 75 kts (Too high IMO) or that they don't weaken it faster because of the land interaction. But no surprise on the upgrade here. '''Darren23Edits|Mail 02:53, June 21, 2011 (UTC) ::Well Darren, you were right. This storms is just like Andres. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 02:55, June 21, 2011 (UTC) :This one reminds me more of Eugene of 1987 or Calvin of 1993 more than Andres 2 years ago, but not quite as ferocious, let alone as strong. Andres came close to Mexico in 2009, but it remained far enough offshore not to cause signifigant damage. Beatriz is so unbelievably close to Mexico(and still heading NNW at 12), there is virtually no chance it will not make landfall as of now. The good thing is, damages from wind and flooding will likely be localized anyway and not be a problem for the entire country of Mexico as a whole, and due to it's very small size, this thing will die like wildfire when it goes over the Sierra Madre del Sur mountains near the coast. Mexico's southern coast is not a happy place for hurricanes. I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow(or later today) is Beatriz's last day on earth. Ryan1000 05:07, June 21, 2011 (UTC) : : :Ryan do you think Calvin of 1993 should had been retired? '''Allan Jeffs : :YE, I never said it CANT get up to hurricane status. I may have got confused :though if it was weakening or not. Anyway, winds at 90 mph right now. :OWEN2011 13:13, June 21, 2011 (UTC) ::Looks like it's not dealing with the land well atm, I think 90mph is its peak. Yqt1001 14:31, June 21, 2011 (UTC) :I cannot believe the NHC still thinks Beatriz will head out to sea. For god's sake, it's eyewall has already struck the coast and it's still heading NW; Beatriz will likely briefly make landfall if it hasn't already. If I were them, I would just put the track over Cabo Corrientes and dissipate it by tomorrow or so. It's already starting to fall apart. Allan, I think Calvin of '93 would have been a good storm to retire; it caused a lot of problems in several areas throughout western Mexico in 1993, in addition to fairly extensive damage and a moderately high death toll. Apparently, Mexico put some deep thought into that, but decided not to retire him in the end. Kenna was almost the same story in October 2002(but she was retired), and so was Ismael in 1995. Ryan1000 14:53, June 21, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Beatriz (again) (sorry) :(* No sadly this time, but the NHC seems to think that Beatriz will regain hurricane strength in 12 hours. Yqt1001 17:57, June 21, 2011 (UTC) Edit conflicts!!! Anywho, Beatriz's short and happy life (I got that from Vince's discussion back in 2005) is dying away. *I put it on since I was editing this and conflicts happened. Sorry if I ruined everything. Andrew444 18:06, June 21, 2011 (UTC) :AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH. The world is coming to an end. lo, just Kidding. Oh well, that was fun. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 18:51, June 21, 2011 (UTC) ::What? The NHC still thinks it will reintensify into hurricane Beatriz? You've got to be fucking shitting me. I can hardly see any thunderstorms on the water vapor sattelite imagery from this thing. The interaction with the mountains of Mexico has squeezed just about all of the moisture out of this little bitch, and the remains of the thunderstorms are moving east towards Mexico city, not out to sea where she is. Not only can I not see hardly any thunderstorm action near the center of Beatriz, but it's heading into a less and less favorable environment out to sea, as the ridge moves away. The NHC would be better issuing their last advisory on Beatriz than forecasting her to get back to a hurricane. I'm surprised it's at 60 mph now. Based on the current structure from Beatriz now, she has absolutely no hope of survival into tomorrow. As a side note, we now officially have Haima in the WPac and a new TD formed there just yesterday and is now named "Falcon" by PAGASA. God, it just gets better and better! Ryan1000 00:58, June 22, 2011 (UTC) Remnants of Beatriz In one of the fastest weakenings in my experience, the NHC RBT has downgraded the ailing Beatriz to a 25 kt tropical disturbance! I nean yeah, holy s*** I never knew it was gonna weaken to a disturbance less than 24 hours from its 80 kt peak! '''Darren23Edits|Mail 01:41, June 22, 2011 (UTC) :I'm not that surprised, when very small hurricanes like Beatriz make landfall in mountanous areas, they die like lightning. Lorenzo of 2007 didn't survive 12 hours or so after making landfall(in the same area Dean did earlier); Kenna of 2002 didn't last very long after hitting Mexico, and neither did Lane of 2006. Last advisory maybe? Ryan1000 01:56, June 22, 2011 (UTC) ::The difference is that Beatriz wasn't really a traditional landfall, in a sense that it spent only a few hours over land, at most. Yes, its core was disrupted by the landfall paving way for dry, stable air, but even then it shouldn't have rapidly dissipated like. Other storms have survived longer over water under the same conditions. And btw, all the storms you mentioned completely made landfall, unlike this one where if it actually made landfall, it eventually went over water and during the landfall a large portion of the storm was not over land. Darren23Edits|Mail 02:06, June 22, 2011 (UTC) :Well, yes the other storms I mentioned made landfall, but still, although small hurricanes can intensify much faster than big ones(if they are in very favorable conditions), they generally weaken quicker when they hit land. Larger hurricanes weaken slower, but intensify slower as well. Darren, even though Beatriz did not stay over land for a long time and rather just nicked at the western tip of Mexico at Cabo Corrientes, the mountains near shore where it hit still squeezed a ton of moisture from the storm in the time it hit. If this storm was an Atlantic storm of the same size that nicked at the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, like say, storm 2 of 1938, it probrably wouldn't have weakened as fast because the Yucatan Peninsula is not very mountanous wheras the area where Beatriz hit is. The structure of the coastline, in addition to the storm's speed, size of the circulation, and strength are huge factors in determining how fast it will weaken when it interacts with land. Also, wind shear, dry air, cooler waters, or just approaching land altogether can also be players in the game of landfall effects on the hurricane. Because it wasn't over land that long, it hopefully wasn't so bad for Mexico... I heard some people were killed and some damage was reported, but nothing is severe as of yet. Ryan1000 02:35, June 22, 2011 (UTC) ::And last advisory. Was fun tracking you, Beatriz! Ryan1000 02:55, June 22, 2011 (UTC) :::My point was, it wasn't supposed to rapidly weaken that fast. Even the NHC was surprised :P. Darren23Edits|Mail 03:05, June 22, 2011 (UTC) ::Well, we may never know what mother nature may do. It may have been surprising, but perhaps it encountered a crapload of shear or dry air when it did hit. At least 4 people were killed, and damage, if any, was likely insevere. Well, our eyes turn to Haima and Meari in the WPac. =). Ryan1000 18:08, June 22, 2011 (UTC)